Articles

Research notes from the Regime Intelligence desk.

Assets Sheets
14
Per-asset regime sheets — single-instrument reads, tagged by symbol. Visitors can also generate their own sheet from thousands of global assets in Asset Sheet Generation, then download and share.
Latest · XAU/USD Asset Sheet
Asset analysis
9
Deep dives on specific instruments — equities, FX, crypto, commodities (tag symbols; filter in the archive).
Latest · HYPE: The $18 Billion Question
Cheat Sheets
1
Quick-reference regime cheat sheets — states, signals, and reads at a glance.
Latest · Market Structure
Tutorials
4
Step-by-step guides on using the platform and reading regimes.
Latest · Market Regime Explained
Market outlook
6
Broad market analysis: trends, regimes, leadership, and evolving conditions.
Latest · Two Authorities, One Price
Weekly newsletter
0
The weekly Regime Intelligence newsletter — cross-market reads, regime context, and past issues in one archive.

Latest articles

Outlook
Two Authorities, One Price
Jackson Hole named Treasury prices as Fed inputs nine days after Treasury doubled long-end buybacks. 165 trading days of 2026 curve data: policy events move the long end ~5× more than data releases — capstone to the August macro trilogy.
Aug 30, 202628 min read
Assets
HYPE: The $18 Billion Question
HYPE closed at a fresh ATH near $84.68 after a ~63% monthly rally — while trailing protocol revenue fell from ~$866M (Feb) to ~$594M (Aug). Tokenomics, valuation multiples, supply overhang, regulatory catalysts, and a falsifiable thesis inside.
Aug 29, 202642 min read
Outlook
NVIDIA's Weight vs. the S&P 500
At ~7.9% index weight, NVDA mechanically contributed 83% of Monday's S&P decline and 54% of Tuesday's gain. Wednesday's earnings print scales the stakes — options, levels, and hedge mechanics inside.
Aug 26, 202616 min read
Assets
NVIDIA Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview
The Q2 print is largely priced at $91–95B consensus. The trade is the Q3 guide near $104B — gross margin, China exclusion, and capex-cycle durability decide Wednesday's reaction.
Aug 24, 202618 min read
Outlook
The Treasury Signal That Lasted One Session
U.S. Treasury liquidity support buyback expansion announced 19 August 2026 (SB0607). At least $14 billion of incremental long-end capacity — and the yield effect lasted one session.
Aug 22, 202622 min read
Assets
Strategy (MSTR) The Bitcoin Machine
An in-depth capital-structure analysis — reading between the lines. What if MSTR's biggest risk isn't Bitcoin?
Aug 19, 202648 min read
Outlook
The Fed at Crossroads
Core CPI at 2.5% and core PCE at 3.3% tell opposite stories. July 29 was a credibility steepener, not a hawkish hold. June SEP dot plot, 2s10s chart, live SPY & DXY regime cards, and September base case inside.
Aug 12, 202610 min read
Outlook
Warsh vs. Wall Street
Two hawkish FOMC rounds. New ATH anyway. Tomorrow at 8:30am ET, July NFP is Round Three — and in 2026, four of six job prints moved the S&P the opposite way naive beat/miss logic would predict. Full track record, live SPY & DXY regime cards, and the if/then map for every major asset class inside.
Aug 6, 202612 min read
Assets
Gold Levels Held.
Published Strong support and Moderate resistance bracketed gold’s entire FOMC session — low $3,996, high $4,114, failed follow-through at the ceiling. Break above $4,116 targets $4,168+; break below $3,996 targets $3,976.
Jul 29, 202611 min read
Outlook
Hello Bulls. Here Comes the Fed.
CME prices 62.1% hold / 37.9% hike / 0% cut for July 29, and an 81.3% hike for September. Warsh’s first meeting purged easing-bias language. Here’s the rates map — and the trades to avoid.
Jul 28, 20269 min read
Tutorials
Market Regime Explained
A short reference for every regime label: what Clear Skies through Full Storm mean, how CSS percentile bands work, and why the engine measures stress—not price direction.
Jul 1, 20265 min read
Cheat Sheets
Market Structure
Trend, persistence & direction — ordered decision tree. ADX, DI, and Hurst thresholds, structure states, and a live QQQ example on one page.
Jun 29, 20262 min read
Assets
Gold Bounced Exactly Where the Engine Said It Would.
The engine called resistance, the 200-day breach, and the $4,000 floor. Gold is at $4,312 with swing resistance overhead and daily CSS at 84.1%.
Jun 14, 202611 min read
Assets
The Engine Called It Perfectly. Over $300 Bagged and Counting.
The engine flagged $4,550–$4,602 at 100/100 before the June 5 break. Gold is below $4,200. Daily CSS is 81.5% with EWS active and Storm Warning pending.
Jun 10, 202610 min read
Assets
Three and a Half Years. Six Cents of Separation.
Silver closed at $67.58. The 200-day SMA is at $67.60. The engine entered Full Storm 30 bars ago. The next move decides everything.
Jun 7, 202610 min read
Tutorials
Why Smart Money Abandoned HMM.
A technical comparison of Hidden Markov Models versus deterministic regime detection — and why the difference cost traders billions in 2008, 2020, and 2026.
Jun 7, 202614 min read
Assets
Two and a Half Years. Gone in One Session.
Gold held the 200-day SMA for 972 days. On June 5, 2026 it closed $97 below it. What the engine flagged from April through the break — and what comes next.
Jun 5, 20268 min read
Assets
Bitcoin Under the Regime Lens
What the engine flagged 94 days before the ATH, through the February trap, the March liquidation cascade — and what it reads now on every timeframe.
Jun 3, 20265 min read
Tutorials
Your System Is Not Broken. The Market You Are Trading It In Is.
A complete guide to market regime analysis — five states, CSS, multi-timeframe reads, and why your system fails when the environment changes.
Jun 2, 202618 min read
Tutorials
The Public Articles Desk Is Live
Four primary article types, symbol-tagged for filtering. Market outlook for the big picture; asset analysis when the thesis is instrument-specific.
May 11, 20264 min read

Assets Sheets

Asset analysis

Cheat Sheets

Tutorials

Market outlook

Weekly newsletter

Latest articles

Two Authorities, One Price

HYPE: The $18 Billion Question

NVIDIA's Weight vs. the S&P 500

NVIDIA Q2 FY27 Earnings Preview

The Treasury Signal That Lasted One Session

Strategy (MSTR) The Bitcoin Machine

The Fed at Crossroads

Warsh vs. Wall Street

Gold Levels Held.

Hello Bulls. Here Comes the Fed.

Market Regime Explained

Market Structure

Gold Bounced Exactly Where the Engine Said It Would.

The Engine Called It Perfectly. Over $300 Bagged and Counting.

Three and a Half Years. Six Cents of Separation.

Why Smart Money Abandoned HMM.

Two and a Half Years. Gone in One Session.

Bitcoin Under the Regime Lens

Your System Is Not Broken. The Market You Are Trading It In Is.

The Public Articles Desk Is Live