Market Structure
Trend, persistence & direction — ordered decision tree. ADX, DI, and Hurst thresholds, structure states, and a live QQQ example on one page.
How to read: A market-structure engine: ADX, +DI/−DI, and Hurst feed an ordered decision tree. The first matching rule sets the tag, bar color, directional read, and footer — not the raw indicator values alone.
Trend strength on a 0–100 scale (Wilder period 14 (~27–28 bars effective memory)), regardless of direction. High = conviction in the move; low = chop.
Wilder-smoothed upward vs downward movement (Wilder period 14 (~27–28 bars effective memory)). +DI above −DI means upward movement has been stronger lately.
Variance-ratio persistence proxy (0–1), rolling window max(medium horizon, 20 bars). Bands are provisional — not yet calibrated to this proxy (not classical R/S Hurst). Low = mean-revert bias; high = persistence bias. Modulates confidence — only < 0.45 blocks trending.
Thresholds
| ADX Level | Read |
|---|---|
| < 20 | No trend |
| 20 – <25 | Forming |
| 25 – 50 | Trending* |
| > 50 | Extreme |
| DI Gap | Read |
|---|---|
| ≥ 3 | Clear side |
| < 3 | Mixed / tied |
| Hurst | Read |
|---|---|
| < 0.45 | Mean revert |
| 0.45 – 0.55 | Neutral band |
| > 0.55 | High persistence |
*Trending: ADX ≥ 25, clear DI side (gap ≥ 3), Hurst available and ≥ 0.45. Hurst < 0.45 blocks trending. Hurst 0.45–0.55 → trending with Medium confidence. Hurst missing → hurst unavailable.
Ordered decision tree
Bar Color
Tags & Footer Copy
| State (when) | Tag | Footer shown |
|---|---|---|
| ADX < 20 | no trend | Range-bound — levels matter more than direction |
| Hurst < 0.45 · ADX < 25 | mean reverting | Mean-reverting structure — extremes have often snapped back; levels matter |
| Hurst < 0.45 · ADX ≥ 25 | unstable trend | Elevated ADX, weak Hurst — moves may not persist |
| ADX 20–<25 | trend emerging | Trend forming — wait for ADX/Hurst confirmation |
| ADX≥25 · gap<3 | direction handoff | +DI and −DI converging — possible direction handoff; watch for crossover |
| ADX≥25 · Hurst missing | hurst unavailable | Persistence read unavailable — Hurst missing on this timeframe |
| Trending · Hurst 0.45–0.55 | trend established | Trend present — persistence not fully confirmed (Hurst in neutral band) |
| Trending · Hurst > 0.55 · ADX 25–50 | trend established | Established trend — ADX and persistence aligned on this timeframe |
| Trending · ADX > 50 | extreme trend | Late-stage trend — ADX very elevated; strength often mean-reverts from here |
Confidence Layer
| Condition | Conf. | Footer (trending) |
|---|---|---|
| Trending + Hurst > 0.55 + strong/extreme ADX | High | Established trend — ADX and persistence aligned on this timeframe |
| Trending + Hurst 0.45–0.55 | Medium | Trend present — persistence not fully confirmed (Hurst in neutral band) |
| Direction handoff (DI converging) | Handoff | +DI and −DI converging — possible direction handoff; watch for crossover |
| No trend / revert / forming / Hurst missing | Low | uses the state footer at left |
Hurst gates confidence, not direction: only Hurst < 0.45 blocks trending. The 0.45–0.55 band yields Medium confidence while ADX and DI still show trend.
Live Example — QQQ, all 5 timeframes · as of 2026-06-20
| 15M | no trend | ADX 18.7 · DI+ 29.8 / DI− 20.9 | below 20 threshold |
| 1H | trend emerging | ADX 21.1 · DI+ 24.5 / DI− 16.3 | gap ≥ 3, upward > downward (Wilder period 14) |
| 4H | no trend | ADX 15.3 · DI+ 34.5 / DI− 30.9 | below 20 threshold |
| 1D | mean reverting | ADX 24.5 · Hurst 0.44 | Rule 3 — mean revert (ADX below 25) |
| 1W | trend established | ADX 25.5 · DI+ 34.4 / 18.8 · Hurst 0.52 | Rule 4 — trending, Medium confidence (Hurst neutral band) |
Descriptive context built from price action and published indicators — not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets guarantee nothing. Educational use only. Not investment advice.
RI™ Cheat Sheet Series · No. 01 · v1.2 · Aug 2026
Number one in the RI Cheat Sheet Series. Market Structure is the one-page reference for how Regime Intelligence classifies trend, chop, unstable trend, direction handoff, and Hurst-unavailable states — on every timeframe. Download it, keep it next to your charts, and read any structure tag in seconds.
What's inside
- The three indicators — ADX (is there a trend?), DI+/DI− (which direction has dominated?), and Hurst (will it continue?).
- Exact thresholds and the ordered decision tree the engine uses.
- Bar colors, tags, footer copy, and the confidence layer.
- A live QQQ example across all five timeframes.