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Outlook
Two Authorities, One Price
Jackson Hole named Treasury prices as Fed inputs nine days after Treasury doubled long-end buybacks. 165 trading days of 2026 curve data: policy events move the long end ~5× more than data releases — capstone to the August macro trilogy.
Aug 30, 202628 min read
Outlook
NVIDIA's Weight vs. the S&P 500
At ~7.9% index weight, NVDA mechanically contributed 83% of Monday's S&P decline and 54% of Tuesday's gain. Wednesday's earnings print scales the stakes — options, levels, and hedge mechanics inside.
Aug 26, 202616 min read
Outlook
The Treasury Signal That Lasted One Session
U.S. Treasury liquidity support buyback expansion announced 19 August 2026 (SB0607). At least $14 billion of incremental long-end capacity — and the yield effect lasted one session.
Aug 22, 202622 min read
Outlook
The Fed at Crossroads
Core CPI at 2.5% and core PCE at 3.3% tell opposite stories. July 29 was a credibility steepener, not a hawkish hold. June SEP dot plot, 2s10s chart, live SPY & DXY regime cards, and September base case inside.
Aug 12, 202610 min read
Outlook
Warsh vs. Wall Street
Two hawkish FOMC rounds. New ATH anyway. Tomorrow at 8:30am ET, July NFP is Round Three — and in 2026, four of six job prints moved the S&P the opposite way naive beat/miss logic would predict. Full track record, live SPY & DXY regime cards, and the if/then map for every major asset class inside.
Aug 6, 202612 min read
Outlook
Hello Bulls. Here Comes the Fed.
CME prices 62.1% hold / 37.9% hike / 0% cut for July 29, and an 81.3% hike for September. Warsh’s first meeting purged easing-bias language. Here’s the rates map — and the trades to avoid.
Jul 28, 20269 min read

Archive

Two Authorities, One Price

NVIDIA's Weight vs. the S&P 500

The Treasury Signal That Lasted One Session

The Fed at Crossroads

Warsh vs. Wall Street

Hello Bulls. Here Comes the Fed.