The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — the difference between 10-year nominal Treasury yields and 10-year TIPS yields. It represents the market's expectation for average inflation over the next decade.
Breakeven inflation is a real-time market forecast of future inflation. It moves instantly with news, unlike CPI which is a lagged indicator. Regime Intelligence uses it as a leading inflation signal.
Below 2% = market expects below-target inflation, deflationary risks. At 2.5% = normal expectations. Above 3% = inflation fears elevated, gold and commodities favored.