ETH/USD Asset Sheet
Ethereum / USD on one page — regime across all five timeframes, trend & control, support/resistance, moving averages, momentum, adaptive RSI bands, and the one-day σ range. Snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026.
All numbers below are from Jul 31, 2026 · 15:40 ET. Prices and engine data may have changed since this snapshot. This sheet describes conditions at one moment — it is not a forecast.
Open live ETH/USD chart →How to read: This is a fixed snapshot — not a live feed. The sections below explain what the engine showed at one moment. The chart and tables give the same read in numbers. Always confirm on the live chart before acting.
At this snapshot, the daily bar sat in Clear Skies (weekly: Full Storm). On the daily bar, ADX was 23.9 (below 25 · not confirmed) while DI+ led DI− (24.0 / 14.1) and Hurst sat near 0.54 (random walk). Price was below the 100-day/200-day and above the 50-day. Put together: buyers had the daily wheel, and trend strength was still forming (ADX in the 20s — not fully confirmed). Momentum did not fully agree with that control read — MACD and the histogram argued the other way, so the picture split. RSI was stretched to the overbought side while the other signals argued — watch whether stretch cools first or control reasserts. Hurst sat near random walk — persistence was not a strong vote either way. This describes conditions at the snapshot — not a forecast of direction.
Weather by timeframe: 15M Clear Skies · 1H Clear Skies · 4H Clear Skies · 1D Clear Skies · 1W Full Storm
- Levels: R1 at $1,890.61 — first resistance above snapshot price (Swing).
- Levels: A sustained move above R1 could bring R2 at $1,911.16 – 1,921.92 into focus; a failure could see price retreat toward S1 at $1,848.09 – 1,859.67 and S2 at $1,835.27 – 1,843.14 if S1 fails.
- Levels: Monitor participation on any test of R1 or S1 — thin moves are less convincing than volume-backed acceptance.
- MAs: Spot vs 50/100/200 — $1,775.83 (Above +5.6%), $1,942.04 (Below −3.4%), $2,111.58 (Below −11.2%).
- Momentum: Adaptive RSI in Transition (current) mode — OB/OS at 65/35; RSI 57.5 reads lean OB · 35 band. MACD Below signal; Bear widening.
- Clear Skies daily backdrop — weekly read Full Storm. Buyers led the daily bar; momentum argued the other way.
- Because control and momentum were not fully aligned, treat R1 near $1,890.61 and S1 near $1,848.09 – 1,859.67 as the chapters to watch — whichever side accepts first may clarify the next page.
- Stretch check: RSI 57.5 (lean OB · 35 band). Price was below the 100-day/200-day and above the 50-day.
- Open the live ETH/USD chart for current reads — this sheet is a fixed snapshot (engine bar date 2026-07-31).
Descriptive summary only — not a buy or sell recommendation.
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Sign up free →Price map — what to watch on the chart
Daily candles to the snapshot date. Chart overlays the nearest 3 supports and 3 resistances; the S/R section below lists up to 4 per side. Top strip lists those chart levels; Y-axis shows short tags only (R1, S1, ±σ). Blue line = snapshot price.
Daily σ price band
Typical one-day up/down range from 252 days of daily log returns — same formula as the live app.
252-day historical daily vol at snapshot: 1σ ≈ 3.24% (±$54.57 on this close). 252 trading days of daily log returns → μ and σ → spot × exp(μ ± k·σ). Same engine formula as Call for Action. Historical close-to-close vol — not ATR or options implied vol.
Support & Resistance
Prices where the move has paused before. Resistance sits above price; support sits below.
Swing
Swing
Swing · prior-day high
Swing · prior-week high
Swing
Swing · prior-week low
Swing
Swing
52-Week Range
Where today’s price sits between the 12-month low and high.
Regime — All Timeframes
The market “weather” on each timeframe — calm, expansion, fragile, or stressed. Timeframes can disagree.
Trend & Control
Whether a real trend exists, and who is in control (buyers or sellers), on each timeframe.
Trend Persistence (1D)
Whether the daily move is likely to continue (trend) or fade (mean-revert), and which side is in control.
| Signal | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Hurst | 0.54 | Random walk |
| DI+ / DI− | 24.0 / 14.1 | DI+ higher (daily bar) |
| ADX | 23.9 | Below 25 · not confirmed |
Moving Averages (1D)
Where price sits versus its 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages. Above = longer-term strength; below = weakness.
| MA | Price | Vs Spot |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 50 | 1,775.83 | Above +5.6% |
| SMA 100 | 1,942.04 | Below −3.4% |
| SMA 200 | 2,111.58 | Below −11.2% |
Momentum (1D)
Short-term speed of the move. RSI flags stretched conditions; MACD shows momentum building or fading.
| Signal | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 57.5 | lean OB · 35 band |
| MACD | 37.40 | Below signal |
| Signal / Hist | 39.10 / -1.70 | Bear widening |
Adaptive RSI Bands
1D is in transition with bullish DI, so the engine uses the 35 / 65 band (not the fixed 70/30). RSI 57.5 sits lean OB → reads as lean ob. Same adaptive logic as the live Call-for-Action tab.
Market Regime Explained
Each timeframe is assigned exactly one market regime. The engine ranks today's Composite Stress Score (CSS) against that rolling history and expresses the result as a 0–100th percentile stress rank. CSS blends volatility, drawdown, momentum stress, and related inputs into one score — it measures market stress, not price direction. The rank uses a rolling history of past CSS values on that same timeframe and asset. Window length is calibrated per timeframe and asset class — roughly three years of history at the long horizon (Wl): about 756 daily bars for US equities and large-cap stocks, about 1,095 daily bars for crypto on 1D, and proportionally longer windows on intraday bars. The labels below translate those percentile rankings into plain-English market states. The All Timeframes summary above shows the regime currently assigned to each timeframe.
Important: A regime describes the current market environment — not whether price is bullish or bearish. An asset can rally or decline in any regime. The label reflects the level of market stress relative to that asset's own history, not the expected direction of the next move.
Regimes are relative to each asset's own historical behavior. Clear Skies for Bitcoin does not imply the same level of absolute volatility as Clear Skies for Treasury bonds or large-cap equities.
To reduce unnecessary regime changes, all labels require persistence before transitioning. Higher-stress regimes generally require stronger confirmation before clearing.
| Regime | Stress rank | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Clear Skies | Lowest ~30% | Quiet conditions |
| Tailwind | 30–50% | Orderly market |
| Thin Ice | 50–70% | Stress building |
| Storm Warning | 70–90% | Elevated stress |
| Full Storm | Top ~10% | Extreme stress |
In practice: Volatility is unusually quiet for this asset on this timeframe. Price action is generally smoother, daily swings tend to be smaller, and volatility shocks occur less frequently. Strong trends can still develop, but the market environment is not being dominated by elevated stress.
Engine rule: CSS ranks below approximately the 30th percentile — current stress is lower than roughly 70% of recent observations for this asset and timeframe.
In practice: Volatility is present but remains generally supportive of orderly price discovery. Trends often extend without the instability seen in higher-stress environments, while pullbacks are less likely to become disorderly. Market conditions remain constructive, although direction should always be confirmed using other indicators.
Engine rule: CSS ranks between approximately the 30th and 50th percentiles — lower-to-middle historical stress for this asset on this timeframe.
In practice: The ground is beginning to crack. Volatility is increasing, market conditions become less stable, and reversals become more common. Breakouts may become less reliable as uncertainty builds, requiring greater selectivity and risk awareness.
Engine rule: CSS ranks between approximately the 50th and 70th percentiles — upper-middle historical stress. Early-warning zone where stress is becoming meaningful but has not yet reached extreme levels.
In practice: Market stress has become elevated. Price swings widen, gap risk increases, and technical behavior becomes less predictable. Traditional chart patterns and technical setups often become less dependable until stress begins to subside.
Engine rule: CSS ranks between approximately the 70th and 90th percentiles — within the highest 20% of historical stress for this asset and timeframe.
In practice: The market is experiencing exceptionally high stress. Large price swings, heightened gap risk, and sharp increases in volatility can dominate price behavior. Correlations may shift unexpectedly, and many traditional technical reference points become less reliable while stress remains elevated.
Engine rule: CSS ranks above the 90th percentile (not including 90 itself), or an immediate crash override is triggered by severe drawdown or volatility-spike rules within the engine.
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RI™ Asset Sheet Series · ETH/USD · Snapshot Jul 31 2026 15:40 ET
The ETH/USD Asset Sheet is the entire Regime Intelligence read on Ethereum / USD, on one page — built from the same engine that powers the live app. Download it, share it, keep it next to your charts.
What's inside
- Regime across all five timeframes — 15m, 1h, 4h, 1D, 1W.
- Trend & control per timeframe — ADX, DI, and Hurst.
- Support/resistance, key levels, and 50/100/200-day moving averages.
- Momentum, adaptive RSI bands, and the one-day σ price range.
This sheet is a dated snapshot (Jul 31, 2026). For the live, always-current ETH/USD read, open it in the app.