Equities
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 75.1%(elevated)
In this regime now (1d): 4 1d bars (4 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 68
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF has entered Thin Ice 68 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to fall a median of 0.1% (mean +0.4%) — positive 50% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 66 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median -0.1% · split evenly — positive and negative in equal measure · worst case -28.0%
Watch for: historically, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 57% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.