Equities
Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 46.0%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 4 1d bars (4 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 68
Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF has entered Thin Ice 68 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 6.0% (mean +6.4%) — positive 70% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 64 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +6.0% · negative 30% of the time (roughly 1 in 3) · worst case -26.3%
Watch for: historically, Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 72% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Tailwind.