Equities
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 62.4%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 14 1d bars (14 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 72
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has entered Thin Ice 72 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 8.8% (mean +6.5%) — positive 74% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 69 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +8.8% · negative 26% of the time (roughly 1 in 4) · worst case -24.7%
Watch for: historically, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 54% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.