Equities
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 58.3%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 2 1d bars (2 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 71
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has entered Thin Ice 71 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 8.8% (mean +7.2%) — positive 75% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 67 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +8.8% · negative 25% of the time (roughly 1 in 4) · worst case -14.6%
Watch for: historically, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 56% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.