Equities
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 55.8%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 14 1d bars (14 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 67
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has entered Thin Ice 67 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 9.9% (mean +7.8%) — positive 78% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 64 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +9.9% · negative 22% of the time (roughly 1 in 5) · worst case -20.5%
Watch for: historically, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 64% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.