Equities
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 63.4%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 2 1d bars (2 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 68
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has entered Thin Ice 68 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 9.8% (mean +7.8%) — positive 78% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 63 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +9.8% · negative 22% of the time (roughly 1 in 5) · worst case -22.8%
Watch for: historically, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 66% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.