Macro
US 3-Month Treasury Yield
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 67.3%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 20 1d bars (20 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 41
US 3-Month Treasury Yield has entered Thin Ice 41 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 23.8% (mean +403.4%) — positive 55% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 40 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +23.8% · negative 42% of the time · worst case -100.0%
Watch for: historically, US 3-Month Treasury Yield exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 56% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.