Macro
US Curve Slope (30Y-5Y)
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 98.6%(elevated)
In this regime now (1d): 7 1d bars (7 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 71
US Curve Slope (30Y-5Y) has entered Thin Ice 71 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 0.2% (mean +3.2%) — positive 51% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 68 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +0.2% · negative 47% of the time · worst case -500.0%
Watch for: historically, US Curve Slope (30Y-5Y) exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 64% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.