Equities
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 64.9%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 20 1d bars (20 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 82
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has entered Thin Ice 82 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 10.3% (mean +8.2%) — positive 81% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 77 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +10.3% · negative 19% of the time (roughly 1 in 5) · worst case -32.8%
Watch for: historically, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 73% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Tailwind.