Macro
US 10Y TIPS Real minus Breakeven
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
TailwindMarket stress: 80.6%(elevated)
In this regime now (1d): 10 1d bars (10 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 98
US 10Y TIPS Real minus Breakeven has entered Tailwind 98 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to fall a median of 5.7% (mean -25.9%) — positive 48% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 92 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median -5.7% · more often negative than positive · worst case -1414.3%
Watch for: historically, US 10Y TIPS Real minus Breakeven exited Tailwind within 10 bars in 65% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Clear Skies.