Equities
SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 83.7%(elevated)
In this regime now (1d): 4 1d bars (4 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 64
SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust has entered Thin Ice 64 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 7.2% (mean +5.9%) — positive 73% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 62 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +7.2% · negative 27% of the time (roughly 1 in 4) · worst case -35.4%
Watch for: historically, SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 73% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Tailwind.