Equities
SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 65.7%(moderate)
In this regime now (1d): 13 1d bars (13 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 63
SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust has entered Thin Ice 63 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 8.5% (mean +7.1%) — positive 76% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 62 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median +8.5% · negative 24% of the time (roughly 1 in 4) · worst case -29.1%
Watch for: historically, SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 70% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Tailwind.