Markets/XAU/USD

Commodities

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XAU/USD

4,008.34

Gold spot

Session

Open
4,008.66
High
4,029.98
Low
3,988.67
Close
4,011.01

Change

Chg
12.56
% Chg
+0.31%

Prior

Prev close
3,995.78

52-week

Low
3,949.45
High
5,597.23
Range
3,949.45 - 5,597.23

Regime historical context

Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,

Regime (1d)

Thin Ice

Market stress: 91.5%(elevated)

In this regime now (1d): 5 1d bars (5 days)

Times entered this regime (1d): 86

Gold spot has entered Thin Ice 86 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to rise a median of 4.3% (mean +8.4%) — positive 67% of the time.

Confidence: Moderate — Based on 84 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.

At 180 bars: median +4.3% · negative 33% of the time · worst case -23.7%

Watch for: historically, Gold spot exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 52% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.

5 bars53%positiven=85
10 bars56%positiven=85
21 bars58%positiven=85
30 bars55%positiven=84
90 bars68%positiven=84
180 bars67%positiven=84