Bonds
CBON
$24.12Closed
VanEck China Bond ETF
Regime historical context
Historically, what happened when this symbol entered its current regime,
Regime (1d)
Thin IceMarket stress: 75.2%(elevated)
In this regime now (1d): 4 1d bars (4 days)
Times entered this regime (1d): 44
VanEck China Bond ETF has entered Thin Ice 44 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to fall a median of 1.2% (mean -0.7%) — positive 38% of the time.
Confidence: Moderate — Based on 39 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.
At 180 bars: median -1.2% · more often negative than positive · worst case -7.3%
Watch for: historically, VanEck China Bond ETF exited Thin Ice within 10 bars in 58% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.
5 bars53%positiven=43
10 bars51%positiven=43
21 bars49%positiven=43
30 bars52%positiven=42
90 bars41%positiven=41
180 bars38%positiven=39