BND

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF has entered Storm Warning 50 times in historical data. At 180 bars, it went on to fall a median of 0.4% (mean -0.5%) — positive 46% of the time.

Confidence: Moderate — Based on 46 historical occurrences at the 180-bar horizon.

At 180 bars: median -0.4% · more often negative than positive · worst case -15.2%

Watch for: historically, Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF exited Storm Warning within 21 bars in 69% of cases — most commonly transitioning toward Thin Ice.