US Retail Sales — the monthly measure of consumer spending at retail stores. Covers about one-third of all consumer spending.
Consumer spending is 70% of US GDP. Retail sales is the fastest real-time proxy for consumer health. A sharp drop often precedes or confirms recession.
Control retail sales (ex autos, gas, food services) is the cleanest signal. Month-over-month decline for 2+ months = consumer stress. Rising trend = resilient consumer.